Broker looks ahead to rest of 2009News // January 13, 2009
In its Market Summary for 2008, broker Fearnley Offshore Supply says 2008 goes down in history "as a year with mixed emotions," sand makes some interesting predictions for 2009.
"The offshore industry have seen higher earnings than ever and record activity levels. At the same time we have never seen this many nervous clients," said Fearnley.
"Towards the second half of the year the financial turmoil created a freezing cold business climate... and the oil-price took a nose-dive which very few had predicted."
"The falling oil price gave fear of reduced offshore activity, and some projects were immediately cancelled, others were expected to be postponed.. charter rates for offshore vessels generally continued to be high up to the end of the year and the start of the New Year."
"Long term fixtures concluded in 2009 so far are not giving the pessimists anything to cheer about," said Fearnley, noting that recent Petrobras fixtures of vessels from Solstad, Farstad and MCT indicate that owners remain rather bullish, and there continues to be a shortage of tonnage in some segments. "Charter rates may therefore continue to reflect this well into 2009," said the broker.
"We believe that 2009 will be a year where we will experience some of the following," said Fearnley, listing:
- Tight banks
- Struggling shipyards
- Resale of newbuilds
- Cancellation of newbuild contracts
- Take-over attempts/consolidation
- A volatile oil price
- Attempted renegotiation of terms on existing contracts
- High quality tonnage going to areas where it normally would not operate.