IEA says non-OPEC supply seen growing even faster in 2014News // July 15, 2013
The IEA says that despite a lacklustre economic outlook, futures markets were buoyed by upheaval in Egypt and supply]side issues. Futures edged mildly higher in June but posted stronger gains in early July, with Brent last trading at US$108.30/bbl and WTI at US$105.20/bbl.
Global demand is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2014, following upwardly-revised growth of 930 kb/d in 2013. Unseasonably cold weather in the OECD helped to raise the estimates for 2Q13 and fullyear 2013 by 645 kb/d and 215 kb/d, respectively.
Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2014, higher than an upwardly revised 1.2 mb/d for 2013. Global supplies fell by 0.3 mb/d to 91.2 mb/d in June m]o]m, as lower OPEC crude output more than offset an 80 kb/d gain in non-OPEC supply.
Disruptions in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq cut OPEC crude oil supplies by 370 kb/d in June, to 30.61 mb/d. The 'call on OPEC crude and stock change'f for 1H13 was raised by 350 kb/d to 29.6 mb/d, as cold weather lifted 2Q13 demand. For 2014, the 'call' is forecast to decline by 200 kb/d to 29.4 mb/d.